By Gail A. Tierney
CCSO Public Information Officer

While it’s always a good idea to keep a watchful eye on the tropics during the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 through Nov. 30), the maximum activity for the Atlantic basin historically occurs in early to mid-September.

Given the presence of an El Niño episode as well, citizens should remain particularly weather-conscious.

The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center announced the arrival of El Niño in early July. The CPC has indicated that a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño episode is expected through the fall months, with the potential of strengthening in the 2009-10 winter months.

El Niño is the periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific waters which typically occurs every two to five years and on average lasts about 12 months.

The phenomenon known as El Niño has been in evidence as early as the 1600s off the coast of Peru. At varying intervals, unusually warm waters off the Peruvian coast appeared around Christmas and were dubbed El Niño, for the Christ child. Today, El Niño is known to be the warm extreme of an inter-annual climate fluctuation called El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

What El Niño does is shift the fall/winter/spring position of the jet stream further southward than normal. El Niño episodes bring more frequent and stronger storms across the Gulf of Mexico and southern United States, the result being a higher threat for severe weather, excessive rainfall and coastal storms in Florida.

Severe weather events in the Sunshine State, particularly in the form of strong, violent tornadoes during the fall/winter/spring months, have shown a striking relationship to the strength of El Niño.

Florida’s two deadliest tornado outbreaks (21 fatalities on Feb. 2, 2007, and 42 fatalities on Feb. 22-23, 1998) occurred in overnight events during El Niño episodes. El Niño often increases atmospheric wind shear across the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which often reduces the frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms.

In fact, as of early August, forecasters reduced their seasonal numbers slightly, largely due to the development of an El Niño episode. They continue to call for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters are anticipating 10 named storms, with the possibility of four hurricanes, two of which could be major. The probability for at least one major hurricane landfall on the U.S. East Coast (includes the Florida peninsula) dropped to 27percent.

However, you may recall that although only six named storms formed during the 1992 Atlantic hurricane season, which also coincided with an El Niño episode, the first storm of that season was deadly Hurricane Andrew.

So, stay tuned to developing weather systems, keep a well-stocked disaster supply kit on hand and revisit your family and business disaster plans. Being prepared is the best way to keep safe this hurricane season.
Gail Tierney is public information officer for the Citrus County Sheriff’s Office. She has been with the agency for 19 years. Comments or suggestions may be directed to Gail at 352-341-7460, or gtierney@sheriffcitrus.org.

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Gail Tierney is public information officer for the Citrus County Sheriff’s Office. She has been with the agency for 19 years. Comments or suggestions may be directed to Gail at 352-341-7460, or gtierney@sheriffcitrus.org.